WNBA Preview: Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury - Who Will Come Out on Top? (2026)

The WNBA's Connecticut Sun and Phoenix Mercury are set to face off again, with the Sun aiming to continue their recent surge in form and the Mercury seeking to break their losing streak. The first meeting between these two teams ended in a Sun victory, and the odds suggest that the Sun may be favored once more. However, the Mercury's recent struggles and the Sun's recent form make this a tricky prediction. In this article, I will analyze the key factors at play and offer my own perspective on the outcome of this game. The WNBA's Connecticut Sun and Phoenix Mercury are set to face off again, with the Sun aiming to continue their recent surge in form and the Mercury seeking to break their losing streak. The first meeting between these two teams ended in a Sun victory, and the odds suggest that the Sun may be favored once more. However, the Mercury's recent struggles and the Sun's recent form make this a tricky prediction. In this article, I will analyze the key factors at play and offer my own perspective on the outcome of this game.

The Sun's Recent Form

The Connecticut Sun have been on a roll lately, winning five of their past eight games and pulling off an impressive upset against the Mercury on Friday. Their overall record of 7-18 puts them in 14th place in the WNBA standings, but their recent form has been encouraging. The Sun have also been covering the spread in 14 of their 25 games this season, and the game total has gone over in 14 of those games. This suggests that the Sun are a team on the rise, and their recent dominance against the Mercury is a sign of their improved form.

The Mercury's Struggles

The Phoenix Mercury, on the other hand, have been in a slump, losing five straight games and struggling to cover the spread. Their record of 8-18 puts them in 13th place in the WNBA standings, and they have the worst record against the spread in the league. The Mercury have also been giving up points in recent games, with opponents scoring 92+ points in four straight games and 102+ points in two of their last four games. This suggests that the Mercury are a team in transition, and their struggles may continue against the Sun.

Key Players to Watch

For the Sun, Brittney Griner is a key player to watch. She is listed as probable for the game with a rib injury and averages 13.8 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. Leila Lacan is also a key contributor, averaging 13.3 points and 4.6 assists per game. Aneesah Morrow, who is listed as questionable with a leg strain, averages 10.5 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. For the Mercury, Kahleah Copper is a standout player, averaging 20.6 points and 3.8 rebounds per game. Alyssa Thomas is also a key contributor, averaging 14.5 points, 8.0 assists, and 6.9 rebounds per game.

The Rebounding Battle

One area where the Sun have dominated in recent games is the rebounding battle. In their win against the Mercury on Friday, the Sun out-rebounded the Mercury 34-27. This suggests that the Sun are a team that can control the boards and limit the Mercury's second-chance opportunities. If the Sun can continue to dominate the glass, it could be a key factor in their success against the Mercury.

The Spread and the Moneyline

The odds for this game suggest that the Sun may be favored once more, with the Mercury entering as 4.5-point favorites and holding -180 odds of winning outright. The Sun hold +150 odds of getting the win, with the game total set at 167.5 points. Given the Sun's recent form and the Mercury's struggles, I believe that the Sun are the better bet. Their ability to cover the spread in recent games and their dominance against the Mercury make them a strong choice for the moneyline.

Conclusion

In my opinion, the Connecticut Sun are the better bet in this game. Their recent form, dominance against the Mercury, and ability to control the rebounding battle make them a strong choice. While the Mercury are struggling, the Sun's recent surge in form suggests that they are a team on the rise. I believe that the Sun will continue their winning streak and pull off the upset for the second consecutive matchup with the Mercury. The best bet for this game is the Connecticut Sun Moneyline (+150).

WNBA Preview: Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury - Who Will Come Out on Top? (2026)
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